Weekly report of electric power equipment and new energy industry: the installed capacity of lithium batteries for new energy vehicles has grown steadily, and the third version of the quota system has been released
Release time:
2022-12-29 11:17
New energy vehicles: According to the real lithium research data, the cumulative installed power from January to October 2018 was 35.69GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 90.15%. In October, the installed capacity of power battery in a single month was 6.13GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 82.87% and a month-on-month increase of 1.96%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary battery was 3.59GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.65 times and a month-on-month increase of 15.49%, accounting for 67.61%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 1.88GWh, up 62.96% year on year, down 19.94% month on month, accounting for 30.76%. 1) From the perspective of vehicle model, the installed capacity of pure electric passenger cars was 3.78GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 168.12% and a month-on-month increase of 14.14%. The increase was due to the substantial growth of A00 passenger cars, so the charged capacity of a single car decreased by 6.37 kilowatt-hours to 43.01 kWh; The installed capacity of plug-in passenger cars was 4.29GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 1.59 times and a month-on-month increase of 9.34%, and the growth was relatively good. The charged capacity of its single car was 14.5kWh, basically the same as that of last month; 2) In terms of battery type, square battery is still the mainstream, with installed capacity of 4.61 GWh, accounting for 75.23%; The installed capacity of soft pack battery is 0.84GWh, up 17.24% year on year, which is the fastest growing among the three battery routes, with the penetration rate reaching 13.65%, up 1.78% month on month, mainly because its installed capacity in pure electric passenger cars reaches 46.4MWh, up 1.10 times year on year; In addition, all plug-in passenger cars this month use soft-packed batteries, with an installed capacity of 4.60MWh; 3) From the perspective of automobile enterprises, Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Bike, and Li Shenwei ranked among the top five, with installed capacity of 2.58, 1.36, 0.29, 0.29, and 0.20 GWh respectively, with a total market share of 76.95%, down 4.35 percentage points from the previous month. Funeng Technology's installed capacity this month was 0.19GWh, falling out of the top five ranks and ranking sixth, but its cumulative installed capacity in the first 10 months was 1.60GWh, ranking fourth, accounting for 4.48%. In terms of each link, 1) the supply and demand surplus of lithium batteries will further intensify, and high-end lithium batteries will be more popular; 2) The expansion and landing of wet diaphragm will accelerate the import substitution, which is expected to maintain the pattern of volume increase and price decrease slightly; 3) Positive electrode materials are in the process of increasing industrial concentration, leading enterprises will attract more customers; 4) The negative electrode price is at the bottom, the competition pattern is clear, and there is a large space for improvement on the margin, or there will be a trend of stable increase in quantity and price; 5) The price of electrolyte began to rise due to the rise of solvent cost. The profit margin of manufacturers is still small, and the volume and price are expected to rise in the future. We recommend: 1) Midstream leading enterprises entering the mainstream supply chain: we recommend to focus on Ningde Times, Innovation Stock (wet diaphragm), Putai (negative material), Tianci Material (electrolyte), Shanshan Stock (positive and negative material), etc; 2) In the future, lithium batteries will win with economy and high energy density. It is recommended to pay attention to Dangsheng Technology (high nickel ternary cathode) and Xinlun Technology (aluminum plastic film for soft battery).